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Christian P. Robert: Discretization and MCMC Convergence Assessment

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The exponential increase in the use of MCMC methods and the corre- sponding applications in domains of even higher complexity have caused a growing concern about the available convergence assessment methods and the realization that some of these methods were not reliable enough for all-purpose analyses. Some researchers have mainly focussed on the con- vergence to stationarity and the estimation of rates of convergence, in rela- tion with the eigenvalues of the transition kernel. This monograph adopts a different perspective by developing (supposedly) practical devices to assess the mixing behaviour of the chain under study and, more particularly, it proposes methods based on finite (state space) Markov chains which are obtained either through a discretization of the original Markov chain or through a duality principle relating a continuous state space Markov chain to another finite Markov chain, as in missing data or latent variable models. The motivation for the choice of finite state spaces is that, although the resulting control is cruder, in the sense that it can often monitor con- vergence for the discretized version alone, it is also much stricter than alternative methods, since the tools available for finite Markov chains are universal and the resulting transition matrix can be estimated more accu- rately. Moreover, while some setups impose a fixed finite state space, other allow for possible refinements in the discretization level and for consecutive improvements in the convergence monitoring.

Roald Dahl's hilarious and outrageous novels have made him one of the most popular children's authors of all time. Here, the author himself brings five of his wickedly funny stories to life: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: Willy Wonka's famous chocolate factory is opening at last! James and the Giant Peach: A little magic can take you a long way. Fantastic Mr. Fox: Nobody outfoxes Huey Long : His Life in Photos, Drawings & Cartoons download epub Fantastic Mr. Fox! The Enormous Crocodile: Watch out, kids! The Magic Finger: What happens when the hunter becomes the hunted? A remarkable book' Spectator 'One of the most stupendous books of the decade' Sunday Express Truman Capote was one of the most significant American authors of the twentieth century, known for his highly acclaimed books, including: Breakfast at Tiffany's, A Tree of Night and Other Stories and The Grass Harp. In Cold Blood and Breakfast at Tiffany's have been selected for the Penguin Essentials series of books considered some of the twentieth century's most important reads.

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Aileen Paterson: Maisie Comes to Morningside

It's never wiseto blackmail a highwayman.Lady Corinne, rebellious daughter of the dukeof Banfield, refuses to marry Lord Freddie Sherwin.Yes, he's the catch of the Season and the man her fatherchose for her. He's also the most despicable male of her acquaintance. With her wedding only weeks away, she flees and finds herself a prisoner of the notorious Thorn!Who says the devil isn't a woman?The rich and powerful tremble at the highwayman'sname, while England's villagers rejoice in his bold exploits. His identity is a secret; his life a mystery--until Lady Corinne tumbles into his arms. If theThorn wants her silence, he must hide her until herwedding day passes. It's a devil's bargain and one thatcan only lead to a hangman's noose.Corinne believes it the perfect plan--until herhighwayman reveals a passionate lover's heart, and sherealizes that in the seduction of scandal, she may havefound the hero she's been waiting for her whole life.A portion of the proceeds from the sale ofthis book Maisie Comes to Morningside download epub and others (up to $25,000) will bedonated to the Ovarian Cancer National Alliance.

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Elizabeth Goudge: The Dean's Watch

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`A compelling saga of an unlikely friendship threaded together by redemption and grace`The setting is a remote mid-nineteenth-century town in England and its grand cathedral. The cathedral Dean, Adam Ayscough, holds a deep love for his parishioners and townspeople, but he is held captive by an irrational shyness and intimidating manner. The Dean and Isaac Peabody, an obscure watchmaker who does not think he or God have anything in common, strike up an unlikely friendship. This leads to an unusual spiritual awakening that touches the entire community.A richly imaginative and inspiring story with appealing and unique characters, this novel is a favorite of Goudge's fans.

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Thabiti Anyabwile,J Mack Stiles: The Gospel for Muslims: An Encouragement to Share Christ with Confidence

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There are between five and eight million Muslims living in the United States today.They either are, or soon will be, your neighborsand co-workers.Does the thought of reaching out to them withthe gospelmake you nervous? How can you effectively communicatethe good news with such largetheological differences?"The Gospel for Muslims "can help make sharing your faith easier than you think.Thabiti Anyabwile, himself aconvert fromIslam to Christianity, instructs you in ways to share the good news of Christ with your neighbors and friends."The Gospel for Muslims "allows you to focus on the people rather than the religious system. Meant for the average Christian, this book is not an exhaustive apologetic or a detailed comparative study of Christianity and Islam.Rather, it compellingly stirs confidence in the gospel, equipping the reader with the basics necessary to communicate clearly, boldly, and winsomely. "

'I Must Stand Up for Myself More', promises Maggie Storm, who spends her days cleaning houses for people who often have more money than manners. Married to a man with as much sex appeal as Mr Blobby, she dreams of a life straight from the pages of a romantic novel. 'My Head Must Rule Over My Heart', promises Ella Moore, who, determined never to let her heart get the better of her again, is recovering from seven wasted years of failing to win over the daughter of the man with whom she wanted to spend the rest of her life. 'No More Women', promises Ethan Edwards, who, to distract himself from the depressing sham of his marriage, is a repeat offender when it comes to turning to other women for sexual consolation. But when Ella appears unexpectedly in The Gospel for Muslims: An Encouragement to Share Christ with Confidence free epub his life, he finds himself turning to her for very different reasons...

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David M. Stillman,Ronni L. Gordon: The Ultimate French Verb Review and Practice: Mastering Verbs and Sentence Building for Confident Communication

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Learn verb skills and communicate confidently in French Building on the authors' bestselling The Ultimate Review and Practice series, this book is your best bet to mastering the often tricky verb forms and key sentence structures of the French language. The Ultimate French Verb Review and Practice offers a step-by-step program for experienced beginners through advanced learners to understand how different verb forms work and use that knowledge to build increasingly sophisticated sentences in French. No other book on the market combines guidance and practice in verb formation and usage with tips on the 18 most commonly used sentence models. Inside you'll find: Numerous exercises and an answer key so you can practice what you have learned Many examples that reflect authentic, everyday language usage This new edition is enhanced with new review exercises, accompanied by free online audio (www.audiostudyplayer.com)

(Less) Yet Never Have Your Dog Stuffed is not a memoir of show-business ups and downs. It is a moving and funny story of a boy growing into a man who then realizes he has only just begun to grow. The The Ultimate French Verb Review and Practice: Mastering Verbs and Sentence Building for Confident Communication free epub period since 1989 has been marked by the global endorsement of open markets, the free flow of finance capital and liberal ideas of constitutional rule, and the active expansion of human rights. Why, then, in this era of intense globalization, has there been a proliferation of violence, of ethnic cleansing on the one hand and extreme forms of political violence against civilian populations on the other? Fear of Small Numbers is Arjun Appadurai's answer to that question. A leading theorist of globalization, Appadurai turns his attention to the complex dynamics fueling large-scale, culturally motivated violence, from the genocides that racked Eastern Europe, Rwanda, and India in the early 1990s to the contemporary "war on terror." Providing a conceptually innovative framework for understanding sources of global violence, he describes how the nation-state has grown ambivalent about minorities at the same time that minorities, because of global communication technologies and migration flows, increasingly see themselves as parts of powerful global majorities.

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Heston Blumenthal: Historic Heston

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British gastronomy has a grand old tradition that has been lost over time. Now our most inventive chef is out to reclaim it. Heston Blumenthal, whose name is synonymous with cutting-edge cuisine, still finds his greatest source of inspiration in the unique and delicious food that our sceptered isle once produced. This has been the secret to his success at world-famous restaurants The Fat Duck and Dinner, where a contrast between old and new, modern and historic, is key. Historic Heston charts a quest for identity through the best of British cooking that stretches from medieval to late-Victorian recipes. Start with twenty-eight historic dishes, take them apart, put them together again and what have you got? A sublime twenty-first-century take on delicacies including meat fruit (1500), quaking pudding (1660) and mock turtle soup (1892). Heston examines the history behind each one's invention and the science that makes it work. He puts these dishes in their social context and follows obscure culinary trails, ferreting out such curious sources as The Queen-like Closet from 1672 (which offers an excellent method for drying goose). What it adds up to is an idiosyncratic culinary history of Britain. This glorious book also gives a unique insight into the way that Heston works, with signature dishes from both The Fat Duck and the double Michelin-starred Dinner. With a beautiful cover illustrated by the genius that is Dave McKean, his illustrations throughout, and some of the most superb food photography you'll ever see, Historic Heston is a book to treasure. You think you know about British cooking? Think again.

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Peter H Reynolds: The Smallest Gift of Christmas

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In Peter H. Reynolds s whimsical holiday story, young Roland learns that more isn t always better and rediscovers the magic of home. Roland can t wait for Christmas Day, and when the morning finally arrives he races downstairs to see what is waiting for him. What he sees stops him in his tracks. Could that tiny present really be what he had waited all year for? It has to be the smallest gift he had ever seen! So Roland wishes for something bigger . . . and bigger . . . and bigger. But he s still convinced there must be a bigger gift somewhere in the universe. Will he know it when he sees it? Peter H. Reynolds s spare, free-spirited illustrations and heartwarming text make this be-carefulwhat-you-wish-for story the perfect holiday gift."

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Sylvan Learning: 4th Grade Super Math Success

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Success in math requires children to make connections between the real world and math concepts in order to solve problems. Extra practice can help young problem solvers advance to more complex topics with confidence. The activities in this workbook are designed to help your children catch up, keep up, and get ahead. Best of all, they ll have lots of fun doing it! Some of the great features you ll find inside are: BASIC MATHCash CrunchCalculating the value of money provides practical practice in adding and subtracting decimals.The Mighty MarlockGuessing any weight is The Mighty Marlock s gig, but sometimes he guesses wrong. Students decide where Marlock goes astray, reinforcing their knowledge of standard and metric measurement.MATH GAMES & PUZZLESNumber FactoryNumbers go into the machine, but what numbers will come out? Students crunch the numbers to solve the puzzle.Secret LocationStudents find points on a map, write the names of those countries, and then unscramble highlighted letters to determine the secret location. MATH IN ACTIONSkateboard SortFrom a dozen skateboards with different designs and patterns, students determine the fraction of striped skateboards, skateboards with flames, skateboards with blue wheels, and other groupings.Favorite FlavorsIra at Ira s Ice Cream Shop is thinking about changing ice cream flavors. From a graph of the flavors people bought on a hot afternoon, students determine the most popular flavor, which ones sold in equal amounts, the fraction of people who bought Fudge Ripple, and which flavor should be replaced.Give your child s confidence in math a boost with "4th Grade Super Math Success.""

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Michael V. Hayden: Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror

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An unprecedented high-level master narrative of America's intelligence wars, from the only person ever to helm both CIA and NSA, at a time of heinous new threats and wrenching change For General Michael Hayden, playing to the edge means playing so close to the line that you get chalk dust on your cleats. Otherwise, by playing back, you may protect yourself, but you will be less successful in protecting America. "Play to the edge" was Hayden's guiding principle when he ran the National Security Agency, and it remained so when he ran CIA. In his view, many shortsighted and uninformed people are quick to criticize, and this book will give them much to chew on but little easy comfort; it is an unapologetic insider's look told from the perspective of the people who faced awesome responsibilities head on, in the moment. How did American intelligence respond to terrorism, a major war and the most sweeping technological revolution in the last 500 years? What was NSA before 9/11 and how did it change in its aftermath? Why did NSA begin the controversial terrorist surveillance program that included the acquisition of domestic phone records? What else was set in motion during this period that formed the backdrop for the infamous Snowden revelations in 2013? As Director of CIA in the last three years of the Bush administration, Hayden had to deal with the rendition, detention and interrogation program as bequeathed to him by his predecessors. He also had to ramp up the agency to support its role in the targeted killing program that began to dramatically increase in July 2008. This was a time of great crisis at CIA, and some agency veterans have credited Hayden with actually saving the agency. He himself won't go that far, but he freely acknowledges that CIA helped turn the American security establishment into the most effective killing machine in the history of armed conflict. For 10 years, then, General Michael Hayden was a participant in some of the most telling events in the annals of American national security. General Hayden's goals are in writing this book are simple and unwavering: No apologies. No excuses. Just what happened. And why. As he writes, "There is a story here that deserves to be told, without varnish and without spin. My view is my view, and others will certainly have different perspectives, but this view deserves to be told to create as complete a history as possible of these turbulent times. I bear no grudges, or at least not many, but I do want this to be a straightforward and readable history for that slice of the American population who depend on and appreciate intelligence, but who do not have the time to master its many obscure characteristics."

Few things are so vital to Christian life yet so mired in controversy as the language we use to name the mystery of the Trinity. This Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror ebook pdf project offers a fresh map of Trinitarian language that is simple, yet profound in its implications for theology and practice. Soulen proposes that sacred scripture gifts us with three patterns of naming the persons of the Trinity: a theo-logical pattern characterized by oblique reference to the Tetragrammaton (the divine name); a christo-logical pattern characterized by the kinship vocabulary of Father, Son, and Spirit; and a pneumato-logical pattern, characterized by the open-ended multiplicity of divine names. These patterns relate in a Trinitarian way: they are distinct, interconnected, and, above all, equally important. The significance of this thesis resides in its power to map the terrain of Trinitarian discourse in a way that is faithful to scripture, critically respectful of tradition, and fruitfully relevant to a broad range of contemporary concerns.

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